Quotes For This Semester

Greg Mankiw asked to pick 15 Harvard's freshman to took his Seminar (linked on books's suggestion). Simply, he could fill up the class with top fifteen highest SAT (like Hasil Ujian Nasional). Here's the answer...

...but I won't, as there is more to life than test scores. I am looking also for passion about the subject, interesting life experiences, and a balance among the group of students to promote good discussion...

Pure inspiration for students who looking for an alibi [read: why they have middle-low or lower GPA] -> including me..laugh..I agree that a group student like me (middle-lower grade) will make class discussion more "lively"

Thanks Professor Mankiw, moreover for your books suggestions.

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Blog Update: "Read More" Things

I've made some improvement on our beloved blog. To simplifyi main page, Kigendeng posting will not fully displayed. So, kigendeng add "read more" link. To open whole posting just click the "Read More" link...Hopefully you'll enjoyed. But, sorry for everyone, who feel inconvenience. Thanks

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Atheist Must Concern...

This picture below is taken from fourblockworld.com. I found this link from Jahen's blog.

I think believe in God still our optimum strategy.

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"Simalakama" Taste Sweet

Indonesian people shocked. Sugar price nowadays reach Rp. 10.500. Even in Ramadhan season, this price booming seems unexplainable. But, it still interesting that how people blame world market for sugar booming

There was a dilemma. Like other food commodity, sugar farmer feel normal sugar price are too low. On January 2009 (Kompas, 27 August 2009) price of rafinated sugar only $310 per tons. Fantastically, in 24 August price bounce up to $615 per tons. World price fluctuation is pointed out as main factor, which lead domestic price going higher. Sugar farmer looked happy, not so consumer (also me). Just like eating simalakama fruit, our ancestor said.

So, it's fair to blame the world market? It is true that our circumstance will get better if we going to autarky? I don't think so. Sucofindo co. assumed that our domestic production was only 2,74 million ton per year. Our Industrial (middle-higher scale) consumption is about 1.054.121 ton per year. At household level, we consume 11,86 kg per capita (since we have 200 million people, it means we consume 2.372.000 ton per year). From those sector, exclude household industry and small-scale industry, we need 3.426.121 ton per year. The only way is doing import.

Increasing import tariff idea and stop sugar import truly unrealistic. For short-run solution we need import. Further, we must consider on how we strengthen our supply side (more productivity) than consider on banning sugar import or close our sugar trade.

Yes, it's like eating simalakama fruit, but this one taste sweet

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Gorontalo, The Black Swan of Indonesia

We, Indonesian, or may be people in whole world commonly accept that there are such a gender discrimination in daily life. I'm not going to ignore that, especially from my Indonesia point of view about education.We know about great struggle of Kartini at the past against Javanese culture named "pingitan". (Women are believed to stay at home and didn't need to got education experience.)

In modern days, may be "pingitan" was no more than folklore. But, data told the truth. Selected Social-Economics Indicators of Indonesia 2008 reported that there are some gap on gender term in Indonesian education. Adult literacy rate in Indonesia for Male reach 94,56% , for female just 88,39%. . Further, Mean years of schooling told similar sense. Indonesian male spend 7,9 years for schooling but female group only spend 7 year (approximately just finished elementary school.


Nassim Nicholas Taleb proposed The Black Swan Theory. There are some rare event beyond our normal expectations. We need not traveling to Western Australia in purpose to see the black swan (on denotative meaning). Let's us flight to Gorontalo (another new province after decentralization in Indonesia). On paragraph above, we saw such a disrimination by gender on Indonesian education. Women got less. But not at Gorontalo. Gorontalo's female have spend 7 years for shooling but their male spend 6,5 years. Same story on adult literacy rate, approx. 95,93% women an read, when only 95,47% of male.

I still couldn't explain why. Even a matrilinealistic culture like Minangkabau have, the data follow same pattern like normal gender disrcimination (adult literacy rate and mean years for schooling for women is less than male group). The Black Swan theory seems true. But, I also interested of one exciting fact. In Indonesia 79,6% of women have used contraceptive but 84,98% Gorontalo's women have it. It looks like there are some correlation between eduation and demographic problem, especially facing population booming.

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BOP-B: Just an Ideas (part 2)

(melanjutkan posting sebelumnya)...Apa arti 3 langkah perubahan yang kita lakukan?
Melalui lembaga yayasan beasiswa yang dikelola Universitas (sebut saja suatu saat UI punya yayasan "Makara Foundation") dan kerjasama badan khusus pengkoordinir dana beasiswa departemen pemerintah, informasi akan tersalurkan seara lebih fokus. Peserta didik yang ingin masuk di PTN tertentu langusng berhubungan dengna pihak bersangkutan. Tidak menutup kemungkinan juga mencari sendiri lembaga swasta.(ingat problem 1).

Berikutnya revolusi kebijakan fiskal terfokus untuk memperbanyak jumlah penyedia scholarship. Sasarannya jelas perusahaan-perusahaan besar. Apalagi melihat kenyataan banyak perusahaan besar yang menunggak pajak. Lebih baik memberikan mereka keringangan lewat kompensasi pendidikan.(ingat problem 2). Setidaknya ada 3 makna penting dari pola ini.

Pertama, perubahan paradigma dari meminta keringanan menjadi usaha mencari tambahan dana, hal ini juga mempersiapkan mahasiswa Indonesia bersekolah ke luar negeri. Kedua, ada perubahan moral hazard, keringanan BOP-B memang menyediakan biaya yang ringan tapi (tanpa mengurangi respek terhadap mahasiswa penerima BOP-B) hal ini tidak berpengaruh banyak pada motivasi mereka. Lewat beasiswa, mahasiswa kurang mampu justru terpau untuk belajar lebih giat yang menjadi human capital tersendiri bagi mereka di masa depan.

Ketiga, sistem ini membantu kemudahan transparansi keuangan universitas. Dana operasioanal dihitung seara tepat (sesuai proporsi yang boleh ditanggung peserta didik), lalu di bagi sejumlah kapasitas mahasiswa. Sehingga merek bisa memprediksi dengan baik kekurangan dana dan bisa fokus mengalokasikan dana untuk researh. Sistem ini juga meningkatkan tingkat fairness penerimaan mahasiswa. Tidak ada alasan mahasiswa diterima karena ia lebih "berduit" (lewat jalur tambahan diluar jalur resmi) daripada calon lain yang punya kompetensi lebih namun kemampuan finansial lemah, sebab dana operasional sudah diperhitungkan sebelumnya.

Skema ini masih "jauh api dari panggang", tetapi bukan tidak mungkin. Semoga pendidikan Indonesia menjadi lebih baik.

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BOP-B: Just an Ideas (part 1)

Keywords: fixed tuition fee, beasiswa, swasta, PTN, dan kebijakan fiskal,

Apa yang coba diangkat sebenarnya merupakan sebuah skema pembiayaan. Pola yang selama ini didominasi oleh pemerintah sedikit berubah dengan memasukkan unsur swasta. Ide ini di mulai, setelah melihat betapa sistem BOP-B yang berbasis price discrimination sering meninggalkan masalah. Assymetric information, distorsi perilaku, dan "kebocoran" (karena tidak mampu menangkap willingness to pay tiap individu). Sebuah inefisiensi atau dalam bahasa non-ekonominya terjadi ketidakadilan.

Berangkat dari kondisi tersebut kigendeng justru cenderung menawarkan penghapusan BOP-B. Alternatifnya justru sebuah sistem fixed tuition fee artinya seluruh biaya ditanggungkan ke peserta didik dengan besar biaya yang sama. Menutup kesempatan orang miskin? Di sinilah peran swasta dan pemerintah bertemu. "Keadilan" yang dituju dicapai lewat sebuah program beasiswa. Peserta didik yang merasa tidak mampu harus mencari beasiswa untuk membayar uang kuliah. Sedikit kejam? Poin utamanya adalah mengalihkan bentuk keringanan pendidikan menjadi beasiswa. Sebuah perubahan paradigma dari mengharap keringanan menjadi mencari tambahan pembiayaan.

Sumber beasiswa diharapkan berasal dari 3 scholarship agent. Pihak swasta (perusahaan), pemerintah, dan universitas. Lubang besar dari ide ini ada 2, yaitu sulitnya akses informasi beasiswa (problem 1) dan jumlah pendonor (problem 2) termasuk besar dana yang tersedia untuk beasiswa. Satu-persatu akan kita bahas.

Dua problem itu dapat dipecahkan jika ketiga scholarship agent berfungsi dengan optimal. Caranya, paling tidak ada 3 hal yang harus dilakukan:
1. Yayasan Beasiswa PTN.Pihak Universitas seharusnya memiiki satu yayasan tersendiri yang khusus menyediakan beasiswa bagi peserta didik.
2. Beasiswa Departemen.Tiap departemen kementerian harus memiliki alokasi dana beasiswa untuk tingkat perguruan tinggi. Selanjutnya dikoordinir oleh pemerintah dibawah Depdiknas agar dikelola database-nya sehingga bisa disosialisasikan kepada PTN
3. "Menjamurkan Beasiswa".Pemerintah membuat sebuah revolusi kebijakan fiskal dengan memberi keringanan pajak pada perusahaan yang mempunyai CSR berupa yayasan beasiswa atau pendidikan (sebab pada umumya scholarship foundation lebih sering menjadi tax avoidance alih-alih tanggung jawab sosial)

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Gold Standard for Todays?

Here's a cons opinion from Director of LPEM (Institute for Economics and Social Research), Dr. Arianto A. Patunru on his blog

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Misleading Again

I reccomended you to see this article.
M. Bambang Pranowo, Professor of Religion-Sosiolog UIN Jakarta, wrote an artice "Virus Kapitalisme dalam Keberagaman". I quoted these interesting opinion:

"...Melihat kenaikan harga sandan-pangan menjelang dan di bulan puasa, bisa kita duga, puasa justru membuat orang makin konsumtif. Kenaikan harga pasar itu niscaya mengikuti hukum permintaan dan penawaran. Makin besar permintaannya, makin tinggi harganya. Ini indikasi, di bulan puasa, umat Islam makin konsumtif..."

Interesting, eh? He was so brave using supply-demand approach to took a conclusion that today's moslem are more consumptive (regarding many definition of "consumptive" terms). Is it true Moslem nowadays more consumptive just because price level is higher on Ramadhan? I doubt it. Economics told different. More possible way to explain why price level increase on Ramadhan is simply because reaction of supply side on anticipate decreasing expected demand. Suppy curve shifted to left because they know they will face decreasing demand on future. So it possible to see price level go higher than normal.

I didn't come to say that my opinion is best explanation for this short-term inflation. Just want to sa that supply and demand works more complicated than Prof. Bambang state. Last, stop blame on capialism as a cause of people preferences and why people keep Heroin on Al-Quran.

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BOP-B: A Lemon Problems for Middle Class

Baru saja Prof. Der.Soz. Gumilar Soemantri dalam Kompas hari ini membuat klarifikasi bahwa BEM- UI tidak dibekukan. Tentu kita bingung kenapa muncul isu dibekukan? Kisruh ini dimulai dari ketegangan antara mahasiswa dan pihak rektorat yang masih belum jauh-jauh menyoal BOP (Biaya Operasional Pendidikan) Berkeadilan atau BOP-B

Tidak perlu sampai membolak-balik theory of justice-nya John Rawls, untuk melihat sisi adil mana yang sedang dipermasalahkan. Seharusnya BOP-B adalah price discrimination admission fee yang harus ditanggung sebagai bentuk "adil" bagi kesempatan belajar. Terdengar indah, tetapi kenyataannya pihak mahasiswa mampu menunjukkan "ketidakadilan" dari data-data primer dan sekunder (yang menurut mereka bisa dipercaya). Benarkah orang miskin tidak mendapat keringanan? Ada kebocoran? atau yang paling sulit, bagaimana menentukan"keadilan"?

Sedikit menengahi badai kisruh yang menyebalkan ini, kita coba pahami posisi kedua belah pihak. Saya yakin rektorat tidak akan men-charge mahasiswa yang benar-benar miskin, taruhlah orang tuanya berada di bawah 1$ per hari dalam konsumsinya, dengan angka keterlaluan Rp.5.000.000 misalnya. Banyak bukti menunjukkan mereka mendapat kan BOP terendah yaitu Rp 100.000 per semester sebagai BOP. Masalahnya sekarang ada di middle class ke atas. Anggapah termasuk lower middle class .

Masalah apa? George Akerlof menyebutnya Lemon Problems. Banyak dimensi definisi untuk membahas teori ini. Namun, ide fundamentalnya terdapat pada assymetric information. Hamir mirip dengan kasus asuransi, terdapat fenomena inside information. Hanya sang mahasiswa yang tau kondisi sebenarnya keuangan keluarga mereka. Pihak rektorat tidak tahu jelas. Di sinilah keraguan dan ketidakpercayaan terjadi. Dalam middle class, spread dan distorsi pendapatan dan pengeluaran sangat jelas. Pihak rektorat sebagai pemberi keringanan dengan informasi terbatas dan desakan kebutuhan dan cenderung memasang admission fee yang tinggi akibat ketidaksempurnaan informasi tadi. Hasilnya? "ketidakadilan" pada beberapa anggota golongan middle class terutama dalam zona margin atau abu-abu.

Bukan bermaksud melepas curiga adanya intransparansi rektorat dan birokrasi cacat yang masih mungkin terjadi dalam menciptakan failure. Namun, sekedar menunjukkan sistem BOP-B punya beberapa kebocoran layaknya sistem price discrimination lain dalam ekonomi. Dalam postingan selanjutnya, kigendeng akan coba memberi alternatif kebijakan yang dapat dipertimbangkan. See you on next posting.

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Watchout Another Attack! Baby Boom

A dramatic movies-like actions on Temanggung (starring: Densus 88), has ended. But it still left a question, who's really Mr-X in the house? Is it Noordin M. Top or else? But, some terrorism experts remind us too keep awake and believe that terror bomb didn't ended yet.

I agree...but not in this particular case.

I agree that "terror bomb" not ended yet. It is real. The Baby Boom. Based on demographic survey on 2007, member of KB (Keluarga Berencana) just slightly increase from 60,3 % to 61,4 and a stagnan Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stuck on level 2,6 (per fertile age woman). We need approx 70% KB's member (Sugiri Syarief, 2008) and must allocate Rp 4 trillion (FYI on 2008 we just have Rp 2,1 trillion)

For real, according to Aburidzal Bakrie, today's Indonesia people have reach 215 million people. People growth, was fantastic, more than 4 million (people) a year! Fear of baby boom part 2 (first baby boom appeared on 60's era) seems realistic. For economic growth I could say it is a bad news. On APBN 2010, I can't see this demographic problem as a priority. But, the data give us early alarm for our government. Especially on 2010, it will be wise to pay attention not only on Densus result but also Census result.

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Football and Fiscal (part 2)

Goal.com try to list several reason, why players prefer to play in Spain not England. The third reason remind us on our previous post and this one

"...Sejak 2004 pemerintah Spanyol menerapkan skema pajak bagi pemain luar Spanyol yang diistilahkan ‘Law of Beckham’... Dalam aturan itu, pemain cukup membayar pajak sebesar 24 persen selama enam tahun pertama di Spanyol.
...Bila masih bermain di MU, gaji yang diterima Ronaldo sebesar €409.000 setelah dipotong pajak. Sebaliknya, di Madrid, gaji bersih yang diterima Ronaldo sebesar €562.500 atau lebih besar 37 persen.
Contoh lain, Klaas Jan Huntelaar yang menerima gaji bersih ₤55.000 per pekan di Madrid. Tottenham Hotspur yang berambisi memboyongnya ke White Hart Lane harus menaikkan gaji Huntelaar menjadi ₤90.000 per pekan karena striker Belanda ini menolak gaji bersih yang diterimanya lebih rendah di klub barunya..." see complete article

Gordon Brown must do something.

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Fasten Your Seatbelt? And You Go Drown With The Plane

I'm not telling about Merpati Airplane accident in Papua. I talk about an interesting article from Didik J. Rachbini (Kompas, 4 August'09) about persuation to tighten our belt on 2010. He questioning that our APBN target seems too optimistic. Thus, he asked to prepare our self to be thrifty.

I hope Didik didn't mean to ask people keep their money on the pocket and less consume. It was a suicide, even in economic crises. Here's the logic. You keep your money, producer get loss, then who paid the wages? The most dangerous arise if producer decide to lowering their output level. It means input "efficiency" or some "rationing". Okay, it simply to understand by looking our famous equation Y= C+ I + G +NX, consumption (C) muss keep going on positive trends. That what such a stimulus for, isn't it?

So, it fair to ask people keep spending their money, wisely. Money are cheap now. We look interest rate as money price. Nowadays. BI as central bank looking continue their BI'rate cut off. (6,75% on July , since Early year Bi cut off interest rate for 225 bps, and Darmin Nasution as Senior Deputy of BI promise to continue this trend. We need consumer confidence (to consume or to invest) than they save their penny.

Update: Just announced this morning (5 August'09), BI rate fell to 6,50%)

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Media Kill Mbah Surip

In Memoriam: Mbah Surip. It's not the caffeine, cigarettes, even heart attack, but the interviews, show schedules , advertising. Our demand, right? He just too tired. Good bye Mbah thank you for left us your laugh. For me it useful in facing this sick life.

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Looking for Best Way To Welfare? Build the Road First, Sir

The world is flat, according to Thomas Friedman (The World is Flat, 2005). China and India was able to use this flatness to boost their economic growth. What makes them different? It is more than such a "miracle". Friedman point out both countries commitment on technology and importance of infrastructure. They provide better access by build electric installation and better road. Park Chung-Hee when he lead South Korea to industrialized countries was do the same thing. On his famous program "Saemuel Undong" (a New Village Movement), he began it with infrastructure. Including build road, which is interconnecting villages.

How about Indonesia? Today's Kompas headline (3 August 2009) figure out how poor our infrastructure. We have 36,000 km national road. (Most of them lay on Sumatera an Java), but it also easy to hear many complaint about the road condition. The same old stories. Bad drainase, overloading truck can pass the officer, and some indication of questionable material. Now 3000 km road was expired (average age of Indonesian road is 10 years). Estimation told us that we need Rp 36 trillion (doubles Ditjen Bina Marga budget). A challenge for SBY to find long term solution for this classic problem. This is important to reduce transportation cost for many economic sector. Easy access would make economics actor allocate their resources more efficient.

But, even Sumatra and Java must count their self lucky. Papua has worse condition. How we can promise, welfare is on the way to Papua, even they didn't have enough road? May be SBY shoukd consider to double allocation of government expenditure budget to Departemen Pekerjaan Umum.

Infrastructure really need stimulus. On my opinion, infrastructure need bigger stimulus than fuel (BBM).

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H1N1 + Bomb = Indonesia

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Juventus Efficiency

Good smelled Mediteranian air on Andalucia, Juventus meet Madrid once again on Peace Cup. Poorly Madrid, they lost again, 2-1 now. As I remember, in the last meeting on Champion League (6 november 2008) Juventus beat Real Madrid 2 -0. So, Juventus won again. Whereas, on this summer break Real Madrid looking to strengthen their squad. They bought Kaka, C. Ronaldo (€ 80 million), Benzema (€ 35 million), and buy back Granero (€ 4 million). Juventus took some action too, they bought Diego (€24,5 million) and Felipe Mello (€ 20,5 million) and Cannavaro for free.

Let sum up this match, now Real have additional € 119 million (from only C. Ronaldo, Benzema and Granero because Kaka didn't play because of injury ). Juventus came without Diego (€24,5 million from Werder Bremen) so they add €20,5 million (for Felipe Melo + Free Cannavaro). Madrid still lose (but get some improvement. Losing 2-1 is better than 2-0 isn't it?) What this imply?

Yeah Juventus simply allocate their resources better than Real Madrid. I'm afraid that Madrid face Decreasing return to scale, it means, they better stop adding new "overvalued input" and try found alternate way. Forza Juve

Notes: But It depends on how Madrid define their "output". If Madrid was seeking for jersey sales boosting (not ever trophy), I think they made it. They are more efficient in this way.

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