Charter Cities: Radical Concept for Development

Ada sebuah pertanyaan besar dalam ekonomi pembangunan (economics development). Apakah negara-negara maju dapat berperan dalam membantu perkembangan negara -negara berkembang? Sebagian besar dari kita akan berkutat dengan sinisme dan bayang-bayang imperialisme modal asing ataupun segera mmembayangkan liberalisasi ala IMF dan lain-lainnya. tetapi Paul Romer (ekonom Stanford University) menjawab "bisa" dengan cara yang lain. Konsepnya cukup radikal, mengembangkan sebuah charter cities". Mengapa kota?

Inspirasi datang dari Hongkong. Sebuah kota dengan perekonomian termaju di China. Dan, ada satu fakta yang kurang diperhatikan, kota itu dibentuk dalam suatu kondisi unik. Kepemilikan bersama Inggris dan China. Benar, bahwa banyak konflik dan perang fisik dalam pengembalian secara utuh ke negeri China Yang menjadi poin penting adalah bagaimana kota itu tumbuh dengan iklim perdagangan terbuka ala "barat, tetapi harus berada dalam kontrol ketat ala sosialis China. Hasilnya, Hongkong menjadi suatu kota yang modern, mampu menarik investasi, dan tetap mempertahankan kesejahteraan rakyat China.

Di sinilah ide Romer bermula. Jika negara maju mau menciptakan suatu bentuk pemerintahan kota bersama yang memberdayakan penduduk negara berkembang, maka penduduk di negara berkembang mempunyai banyak pilihan. Indonesia misalnya, bisa bekerja sama dengan Australia dan menetapkan suatu kawasan kosong, mungkin di Australia ataupun di Indonesia dan menciptakan suatu kota berdasarkan charter. Di kota ini penduduk Indonesia tetap berada dalam payung hukum Indonesia. Hal ini termasuk mekanisme paja, yaitu penerimaan pajak penduduk dengan kewarganegaraan Indonesia tetap masuk ke APBN. Australia mendapat kesempatan meluaskan pasar industri mereka yang hampir mentok akhir-akhir ini. Dengan iklim investasi mudah maka pihak asing lain dapat dengan mudah menanamkan saham. Dan terpenting terjadi spill over teknologi dan modal, mengingat modal dan teknologi masih menjadi missing factors dalam proses industrialisasi Indonesia (tipikal negara berkembang).

Konsep ini masih mentah dan sedikit radikal. Menmbayangkan proses kerjasama bilateral hingga pemerintahan kota bersama terlihat tidak feasible tetapi bukan tidak mungkin dilakukan.
Just an idea,

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Boediono: Infrastructure!

Last Monday, Prof. Boediono the elected vice-president, came to the town. Giving some general descriptive about our macroeconomics condition, that overall could been read on his new book. For me, most important point of his speech is about government critical issues for next 5 years. Boediono put stress on infrastructure. They are, physical infrastructure, soft infrastructure, social infrastructure, and creativeness. I fully agree, since remembering previous post

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"Simalakama" Taste Sweet

Indonesian people shocked. Sugar price nowadays reach Rp. 10.500. Even in Ramadhan season, this price booming seems unexplainable. But, it still interesting that how people blame world market for sugar booming

There was a dilemma. Like other food commodity, sugar farmer feel normal sugar price are too low. On January 2009 (Kompas, 27 August 2009) price of rafinated sugar only $310 per tons. Fantastically, in 24 August price bounce up to $615 per tons. World price fluctuation is pointed out as main factor, which lead domestic price going higher. Sugar farmer looked happy, not so consumer (also me). Just like eating simalakama fruit, our ancestor said.

So, it's fair to blame the world market? It is true that our circumstance will get better if we going to autarky? I don't think so. Sucofindo co. assumed that our domestic production was only 2,74 million ton per year. Our Industrial (middle-higher scale) consumption is about 1.054.121 ton per year. At household level, we consume 11,86 kg per capita (since we have 200 million people, it means we consume 2.372.000 ton per year). From those sector, exclude household industry and small-scale industry, we need 3.426.121 ton per year. The only way is doing import.

Increasing import tariff idea and stop sugar import truly unrealistic. For short-run solution we need import. Further, we must consider on how we strengthen our supply side (more productivity) than consider on banning sugar import or close our sugar trade.

Yes, it's like eating simalakama fruit, but this one taste sweet

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Gold Standard for Todays?

Here's a cons opinion from Director of LPEM (Institute for Economics and Social Research), Dr. Arianto A. Patunru on his blog

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Watchout Another Attack! Baby Boom

A dramatic movies-like actions on Temanggung (starring: Densus 88), has ended. But it still left a question, who's really Mr-X in the house? Is it Noordin M. Top or else? But, some terrorism experts remind us too keep awake and believe that terror bomb didn't ended yet.

I agree...but not in this particular case.

I agree that "terror bomb" not ended yet. It is real. The Baby Boom. Based on demographic survey on 2007, member of KB (Keluarga Berencana) just slightly increase from 60,3 % to 61,4 and a stagnan Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stuck on level 2,6 (per fertile age woman). We need approx 70% KB's member (Sugiri Syarief, 2008) and must allocate Rp 4 trillion (FYI on 2008 we just have Rp 2,1 trillion)

For real, according to Aburidzal Bakrie, today's Indonesia people have reach 215 million people. People growth, was fantastic, more than 4 million (people) a year! Fear of baby boom part 2 (first baby boom appeared on 60's era) seems realistic. For economic growth I could say it is a bad news. On APBN 2010, I can't see this demographic problem as a priority. But, the data give us early alarm for our government. Especially on 2010, it will be wise to pay attention not only on Densus result but also Census result.

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Fasten Your Seatbelt? And You Go Drown With The Plane

I'm not telling about Merpati Airplane accident in Papua. I talk about an interesting article from Didik J. Rachbini (Kompas, 4 August'09) about persuation to tighten our belt on 2010. He questioning that our APBN target seems too optimistic. Thus, he asked to prepare our self to be thrifty.

I hope Didik didn't mean to ask people keep their money on the pocket and less consume. It was a suicide, even in economic crises. Here's the logic. You keep your money, producer get loss, then who paid the wages? The most dangerous arise if producer decide to lowering their output level. It means input "efficiency" or some "rationing". Okay, it simply to understand by looking our famous equation Y= C+ I + G +NX, consumption (C) muss keep going on positive trends. That what such a stimulus for, isn't it?

So, it fair to ask people keep spending their money, wisely. Money are cheap now. We look interest rate as money price. Nowadays. BI as central bank looking continue their BI'rate cut off. (6,75% on July , since Early year Bi cut off interest rate for 225 bps, and Darmin Nasution as Senior Deputy of BI promise to continue this trend. We need consumer confidence (to consume or to invest) than they save their penny.

Update: Just announced this morning (5 August'09), BI rate fell to 6,50%)

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China and America, Yuan and Dollar: The Saga Keep Continues

Few weeks ago, Timothy Geithner has come to visit China for, ehmm, I called it a concert, Hu Jintao listening, sounds like an old song. Sounds like Beatles:
"...
Uncle Sam comes to China
Speaking words of wisdom , let it float.
Let it float, let it float.
This will be an answer, Let it float
Let it float, let it float,
Whisper words of wisdom , let it float."

Adapted from Let It Be (The Beatles), click here for the original lyrics

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After The Election

First, let me congratulate our new (not officialy announced yet, in waiting KPU's calculation) president dan his vice, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Boediono,Phd. In believe, that it must be the first time we had both "Doctor" to lead our nation.

Yes, it was incumbent winning, but it still interesting to predict who will take charge on cabinet specially on economic area. Given inflation rate yoy (June 2009) 3,65% , appreciation on exchange rate, that seems to keep going on, and positive signal from financial market (reflected on IHSG), we just can hope this must be our chance to bounce back our economy. Simply by got right man (or woman) at the right place.

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Consider this before you go abroad for holiday

Update: my friend Rangga Cipta remind me that the list could be a good evidence for Japan's dumping policy.

Update.2: an article taken from Kompas

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Debt: Opportunity or Trap? Or Who Must take The Blame?

Baru saja mengikuti diskusi menarik (KANTIN IE), menyoal utang negara "apakah menguntungkan atau merugikan". Tiba-tiba saja moderator menunjuk ke arah seorang pemuda canggung yang baru datang. Mukanya jelas tampak tidak siap, sementara sebelumnya perdebatan melibatkan data, statistik, rasio, dan istilah-istilah macam "LOI", "agenda asing", IMF, "kepentingan Barat", tinggallah pemuda itu kebingungan. Alih-alih berpendapat ia malah bercerita:

" Ada seorang tukang nasgor (nasi goreng) miskin yang selama ini berjualan di pinggir jalan dengan modal seadanya. Gubuk sederhana, sebuah kompor minyak tua, dan topi penahan terik matahari. Suatu saat sahabat kita ingin menambah modal (baca: utang) pada temannya yang cukup kaya. Temannya bersedia, jumlah 3 juta bukan masalah besar . Namun, sang sahabat tukang nasgor ini mengajukan syarat bahwa ia harus mengganti kompor minyak tua dengan kompor gas ber-LPG.

Menurut sahabat kaya kita ini LPG membuat masakan cepat matang dan intinya lebih efisien, ia menjelaskan bahwa di rumahnya dengan kompor gas, masakan sejenis tersaji lebih cepat dan lebih baik , eh maaf, lebih banyak. Teman kita tukang nasgor ini menyanggupi dan tampak puas. Singkatnya uang dipinjam dan segera ia mengganti kompor tuanya dengan kompor gas. Tak lama berselang tersiar kabar tukang nasgor itu terkena musibah, kompor gasnya meledak. Rupanya ia tidak terlalu paham penggunaan dan perawatan gas LPG. Dengan latar gubuk yang tinggal sisa-sisa, tukang nasgor merenung..."

Siapakah yang harus disalahkan?

Menurut Anda?

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Crises Cycle

Quote of these days :

Macroeconomists need to apply some new lessons and relearn some old ones (economist.com)

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"The greater of two evils", or Hey If You Become President

Judul dalam tanda petik diatas diambil dari salah satu judul artikel dalam Economist.com, dua iblis yang dimaksud tidak lain adalah inflasi dan deflasi.

Sekarang, sedikit berandai-andai: jika Anda menjadi Presiden dan sialnya entah karena Anda lahir di hari yang buruk atau lainnya, Anda langsung mengalami kesialan dalam awal masa jabatan Anda. Yap, Anda harus mengalami krisis ekonomi. Tapi kali ini Tuhan cukup baik, Anda dibolehkan memilih, mengalami inflasi gila2an atau kah deflasi yang juga parah. Negara yang Anda pimpin adalah Indonesia (dengan segala kondisi sosial, politik dan budayanya). Mana yang Anda pilih, inflasi atau deflasi?

Mungkin singkatnya, "memilih menjadi Zimbabwe atau Amerika Serikat di tahun '30 an?"

Just put your comment and some logical argument. By the way, of course, it's just for fun. :)

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